November Domestic Ultra-High Power Graphite Electrode Market Forecast

2025-03-19 16:49:27

The domestic ultra-high power Graphite electrode market stabilized initially in October before rising, with steel bidding prices showing a slight upward trend. The decline in transaction volume and overall market activity was influenced by pre-holiday stockpiling, adjustments to steel mill smelting processes, and lower finished steel profits. The contradiction between rising raw material petroleum coke prices and shrinking demand became more prominent. How will the ultra-high power graphite electrode market perform in November?

I. Review of Ultra-High Power Graphite Electrode Prices

The ultra-high power graphite electrode market remained relatively stable in October. Currently, φ450 ultra-high power graphite electrodes are quoted at 15,300 yuan/ton, φ500 ultra-high power graphite electrodes at 15,800 yuan/ton, and φ550 ultra-high power graphite electrodes at 16,300 yuan/ton. Looking at steel mill bidding, prices in October saw a slight increase on top of the price increases seen at the end of September. II. Rising Raw Material Prices Drive Up Electrode Costs

Looking at electrode raw materials, petroleum coke prices rose for the second consecutive month in October, with the average monthly price increasing by 84 yuan/ton, a 2.06% increase. Although coal tar pitch prices saw a slight decrease, their proportion in electrode costs remains limited. Overall, electrode costs continue to trend upward, and it is understood that petroleum coke prices are expected to rise further in November, with suppliers increasingly inclined to raise prices.

III. Poor Finished Steel Profits May Lead to a Decline in Graphite Electrode Demand

Theoretical calculations indicate that both long and short process production of finished steel products are experiencing varying degrees of losses, reducing enterprises' production enthusiasm. Coupled with environmental regulations in some regions slowing production, output is expected to decline. From another perspective, the differentiated smelting processes for various steel products, driven by cost reduction needs, have led to short-term adjustments in refining time and proportions, also affecting the procurement pace of graphite electrodes. Therefore, the probability of a decline in demand for ultra-high-strength graphite electrodes is relatively high. IV. Declining Export Prices May Drag Down Export Volume

Regarding graphite electrode exports, in September 2025, furnace electrode exports reached approximately 30,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.29%. From January to September, total exports reached 266,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.13%.

In terms of export prices, the average export price of graphite electrodes in 2025 was lower than in 2024. Domestic graphite electrode prices showed an upward trend in September and October. The average export price of graphite electrodes in September decreased by 4.33% compared to August. According to cost theory calculations, taking φ500 ultra-high power graphite electrodes as an example, graphite electrodes are at the break-even point. The export price being lower than the domestic market price may, to some extent, restrict the fulfillment of export orders and drag down export volume.

V. Summary and Outlook