Analysis and prospect of the current situation of China's electric furnace steel productivity layout

2025-11-07 17:22:08

In the context of the "dual carbon" era, the electric furnace short-process steelmaking process is regarded as an effective carbon reduction technology route, and the electric furnace steelmaking capacity has begun to be further expanded around the world. The research on the global electric furnace steel productivity distribution shows that it can be divided into five echelons according to the output of electric furnace steel in major countries. The distribution of productive forces is affected by six factors: trade circulation, energy conditions, economic development, technological innovation, environmental protection policy and market demand. The analysis of more than 210 enterprises with electric furnace equipment in China shows that nearly 200 enterprises are located on the east side of the "Hu Huanyong Line", and the productivity layout mainly presents four characteristics: resource supply, energy support, green orientation and group model. Based on the current situation of China's electric furnace steel productivity layout, four optimization directions for the existing productivity layout are proposed, two development trends for the future productivity layout are given, and the productivity layout of electric furnace steel is prospected from the perspective, capacity and time. It is suggested that when moderately developing electric furnace short-process steelmaking, the decision should not be made in isolation, and it is necessary to comprehensively judge the strategy of developing the productivity layout of electric furnace steel in different periods.

During the supply-side structural reform of the iron and steel industry during the 13th Five-Year Plan, China has reduced crude steel production capacity by more than 150 million tons, and fully cleared 140 million tons of "strip steel". Some enterprises have built a number of electric furnace equipment through the implementation of capacity replacement methods in the iron and steel industry at different stages. In 2022 and 2024, the steel industry released the second edition of the "Carbon Neutrality Vision and Low-carbon Technology Roadmap for the Iron and Steel Industry". Policy documents such as the Implementation Plan for Carbon Peaking in the Industrial Sector and the Guiding Opinions on Promoting the High-quality Development of the Iron and Steel Industry have been promulgated, and it is proposed that the proportion of electric furnace steel production in the total crude steel output will be 15% in 2025, 20% in 2030, and only 9.7% in 2023. Since the beginning of 2024, 93% of the new steelmaking capacity announced by countries around the world is electric furnace steel capacity; Among the steelmaking capacity under construction, electric furnace steel capacity accounts for 50%. In the context of the low-carbon development of the global steel industry, vigorously developing and building electric furnace steel production capacity has only kicked off. Internationally, in the process of the evolution of the layout of the U.S. steel industry from production-oriented to consumption-oriented, short-process enterprises have gradually replaced long-process enterprises to become the mainstream. The EU region has abundant scrap resources, low-carbon policies are becoming stricter, steel demand is declining, and the proportion of electric furnace steel continues to be at a high level. With its own global geographical location, Turkey has taken advantage of its convenient access to imported scrap resources to vigorously promote the construction of electric furnace steel. At present, more than 90% of China's crude steel production capacity is converter steel, and there are practical problems such as insufficient scrap resources and slow tax rebates, high industrial power prices, and relatively weak competitiveness of electric furnace steel products, which seriously restrict the development of electric furnace short-process steelmaking industry under the background of "double carbon". The solution to these problems will not be achieved overnight, nor will it be achieved overnight. On August 23, 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology suspended the implementation of the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry" and revised it, and the electric furnace steel production capacity also briefly entered the stock era. The optimization and adjustment of the productivity layout of China's electric furnace steel industry should not only be placed within the framework of the optimization and adjustment of the overall layout of the steel industry, but also fully consider its own industrial development characteristics. In order to give full play to the overall advantages of China's existing electric furnace steel production capacity, this paper briefly analyzes the characteristics of global electric furnace steel productivity layout, the characteristics and existing problems of China's electric furnace steel productivity layout, and on this basis, tries to give the optimization direction and development trend of China's electric furnace steel productivity layout, in order to provide support for the strategic planning of the next development of electric furnace steel.

1) Based on the 2023 electric furnace steel output of various countries in the world, it can be divided into 5 echelons, with China, India and the United States belonging to the top 3 echelons. The current global electric furnace steel productivity distribution can be summarized into six influencing factors, including trade circulation, energy conditions, economic development, technological innovation, environmental protection policies and market demand. 2) There are more than 210 enterprises in China with electric furnace equipment, of which nearly 200 enterprises are located on the right side of the "Hu Huanyong Line", and the characteristics of productivity layout are divided into four types: resource supply, energy support, green orientation and group model; The main problems in the productivity layout of electric furnace steel are that the cost competitiveness of short-process and long-process enterprises in the same region is weak, the product homogeneity of electric furnace steel enterprises in the same region is serious, and the comparative advantage of green environmental protection of electric furnace short-process steelmaking is not obvious. 3) The optimization measures and development of China's electric furnace steel productivity layout need to be planned in a unified manner, not only to do a good job in the optimization management of the current electric furnace steel stock, but also to do a good job in the strategic planning of the productivity layout of the new electric furnace steel production capacity under the future crude steel reduction development situation. It is recommended to introduce more policies to support the development of the electric furnace steel industry, focus on the six influencing factors of the global electric furnace steel productivity layout and the four characteristics of China's electric furnace steel productivity layout, increase investment in scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation of electric furnace steel, complete the transformation, adjustment and upgrading of electric furnace steel products, achieve full coverage of steel varieties, strengthen international exchanges and cooperation in the electric furnace steel industry, give full play to the green and low-carbon attributes of electric furnace steel, and help the steel industry achieve the "double carbon" goal. 4) From the perspective of location, China's electric furnace steel productivity layout is mainly in the eastern coastal areas, and will gradually form an electric furnace steel industry cluster, and the western region, with its green advantages, will build new and undertake more industrial transfer of electric furnace steel projects, "urban steel mills" and "production capacity to the sea" will also become an important electric furnace steel productivity layout model. At the same time, the multi-base distribution of the group's electric furnace steel industry will become a trend, which is conducive to enhancing the industrial concentration of the steel industry. From the perspective of production capacity and time, with the sufficient supply of scrap resources and the effective replenishment of direct reduced iron, as well as the withdrawal of backward ironmaking capacity, the number of converter steel into electric furnace steel will increase, and the production capacity and output of electric furnace steel will continue to increase with the support of green, intelligent and large-scale electric furnace steel industry. Considering that the decline of China's crude steel output is a general trend in the future, it is necessary to comprehensively judge and dynamically adjust the corresponding strategies of the productivity layout of electric furnace steel in different periods in combination with the actual situation of crude steel output, equipment, capital status, low-carbon environmental protection constraints, etc.