The challenges and opportunities for China's carbon materials industry arising from the Iran-Israel conflict!

2025-11-07 16:14:18

Recently, the conflict between Iran and Israel has been escalating, and the international situation has become increasingly tense. This conflict not only has political and military repercussions, but also creates a lot of uncertainty for the global economy and the development of various industries. China's carbon material industry is also difficult to stay out of the matter, facing unique opportunities and challenges in this conflict.

1. Opportunities

(1) The demand for high-end materials has surged, and the upgrading of military materials: The conflict has driven the manufacturing demand for high-end equipment such as missiles and drones, and carbon fiber (Guangwei Composites, Zhongjian Technology) as the core lightweight materials has significantly increased the number of orders Superalloy raw materials: Due to the growth of orders for aero engines and gas turbines, the terminal demand of some enterprises continued to expand.

(2) The development of alternative imported resources is accelerated, and the strontium ore is independent and controllable: the supply of lazurite in Iran has been interrupted (accounting for 70% of China's imports), which has accelerated the development of domestic strontium ore. For example, Jinrui Mining (15 million tons of reserves of Dafeng Mountain Mine) and Red Star Development Expansion Project (adding 60,000 tons/year) are expected to fill the gap Domestic substitution of bromine: The supply of bromine in Israel is limited, and Shandong Haihua and Lubei Chemical seize the domestic market.

(3) The price dividend brought by cost transmission The price of strontium carbonate exceeded 100,000 yuan/ton due to the tight supply, and the profit margin of enterprises with strontium ore resources expanded. Rising oil prices have boosted the competitiveness of coal chemicals, such as Baofeng Energy (coal-to-olefins) and Hualu Hengsheng (methanol) benefiting from the demand for alternative routes.

Due to the Iran-Israel conflict, the global carbon material supply chain pattern is facing adjustment. Some companies that have relied on the supply of raw materials or products in the Middle East may seek new suppliers to ensure supply stability.

China's carbon material industry has developed rapidly in recent years, with continuous improvement of technical level and product quality, and has a certain international competitiveness, which provides an opportunity for Chinese enterprises to enter the international market and expand market share. At the same time, some domestic enterprises have invested in technology research and development for a long time, have the ability of independent innovation, and can produce high-performance carbon material products, which are expected to achieve domestic substitution in the process of global supply chain restructuring and promote China's carbon material industry to move towards high-end in the international division of labor.

2. Challenges

(1) Risk of disruption of the supply chain of key raw materials Lapis lazuli supply interruption: The suspension of Bandar Abbas in Iran has led to the blockage of high-grade larzurite imports, and the domestic strontium carbonate capacity utilization rate has been under pressure Methanol supply gap: Iran accounts for 60% of China's methanol imports, and its 6.6 million tonnes of production capacity has been shut down (10% of the world's), driving up domestic methanol prices and squeezing carbon material production costs.

(2) Escalation of international logistics and trade barriers The shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz has increased, the logistics cost of Graphite electrode export has risen, and the risk of order default has increased. The EU carbon tariff (CBAM) has been extended to synthetic ammonia and other products, and China's carbon materials exported need to bear an additional carbon cost of 120 euros/ton, weakening price competitiveness.

(3) Cost pressure is transmitted to the downstream Strontium ferrite (accounting for 66% of strontium carbonate demand) Due to the increase in raw material prices, magnetic material companies are forced to seek alternative materials or reduce production.

Rising oil and gas prices have pushed up the production cost of graphite electrodes, but the export premium is difficult to fully transfer due to logistical constraints. The Iran-Israel conflict has led to fluctuations in international oil prices, and the carbon material industry consumes a lot of energy in the production process, and the instability of energy prices will directly affect production costs. If oil prices remain high, the demand for coal as an alternative energy source increases, and the demand for coal in the coal chemical sector increases, which may lead to higher coal prices.

Some links in the production process of carbon materials rely on coal and other energy sources, and the rise in energy costs compresses the profit margins of enterprises and affects the production enthusiasm and market competitiveness of enterprises. In addition, petroleum-based chemicals such as flotation agents and solvents are used in the processing of carbon-carbon materials, and the rise in oil prices will increase the price of these chemicals, further increasing production costs.

Overall, the short-term challenges to China's carbon materials industry are greater than the opportunities for the Iran-Israel conflict: the supply of raw materials and the pressure on logistics costs may suppress the profits of the industry, but the conflict has accelerated the process of domestic substitution and high-end transformation.

In the long run, enterprises with resource self-sufficiency (such as strontium ore and coal chemical integration) and technical reserves (carbon fiber, low-carbon manufacturing) will lead a new round of industrial upgrading. On the one hand, it is necessary to strengthen technological innovation, improve product quality and production efficiency, reduce production costs, and enhance the competitiveness of products in the international market; On the other hand, it is necessary to optimize the market layout, actively explore emerging markets, and reduce the degree of dependence on a single market to cope with possible trade risks.

At the same time, the government can also introduce relevant policies to support the development of enterprises, strengthen international cooperation and coordination, and jointly maintain the stability of the global carbon material industry chain.